Exports and imports at current prices In March 2011 rose by 17.9 percent and 17.4 percent, year-on-year, respectively, according to preliminary data from the Czech Statistical Office (ČSÚ). Seasonally adjusted exports remained on the February 2011 level and imports rose by 0.2 percent, month-on-month. External trade turnover increased by 17.6 percent to reach Kč 496.3 billion y/y, the highest monthly value since the establishment of the Czech Republic.
The year-on-year figures were ahead of analysts’ predictions. “The foreign trade balance surprised with a higher than expected surplus, amounting to Kč 21.5 billion in March and reaching the highest March level since 1993,” Komerční banka (KB) analyst Miroslav Frayer said in a market comment. “In a y/y comparison, it was Kč 4.2 billion higher. Figures sounded positive as well as in the national methodology when the ‘more correct’ statistics showed a four-times higher than expected active balance.”
The largest y/y increases of surplus were posted in machinery and transport equipment, and miscellaneous manufactured articles; decreases of surplus were recorded in inedible crude materials excluding fuels, manufactured goods classified chiefly by material, and beverages and tobacco. The trade balance deficit deepened in mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials; and chemicals and related products. It shrank in food and live animals, according to the ČSÚ.
The trade balance with EU member states showed a surplus of Kč 63.7 billion, which was by Kč 13.5 billion higher, y/y. The trade gap with non-EU countries widened by Kč 9.3 billion to reach Kč 42.2 billion. The trade surplus rose with Germany, the Netherlands, France, the UK and Slovakia. The trade gap with Russia decreased, but the deficit widened in trade with China. ‘Fundamentally there is no reason for any extreme crown appreciation.’
“From the Czech currency’s point of view, the foreign trade data are positive, when in particular its high active balance came as a surprise. However, it still holds that the revision of balance of payments presented a less favorable view on the external balance of the Czech economy. Thus fundamentally there is no reason for any extreme crown appreciation,” KB’s Frayer said.
The Ministry of Industry and Trade was also upbeat about the results. “The record volume of foreign trade in March confirmed our expectations. The high [year-on-year] growth rates of exports and imports, backed by the continued recovery of global and domestic economies, are more interesting as they reflect the high comparison base of last year,” Deputy Minister of Industry and Trade Milan Hovorka said in an e-mail.
He ascribed much of the success in exports to the strength of the Czech Republic’s trading partner, Germany. Hovorka also was positive about trade outside of the EU. “Czech companies are continuing to expand on the eastern markets and the markets of other countries outside Europe,” he said.
