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Czech population growth to ‘peak’ in 2025

Evropa

  17:14

EU-27 will see population increase until 2040 while the Czech Republic is due to see its highest level in 2025, Eurostat says

Jedním z problémů penzijních fondů je, že pokud do nich budou povinně nahnané masy, vznikne otázka, z čeho se budou vyplácet současní důchodci. foto: (c)IlustraČeská pozice

The population in the EU-27 is expected to peak around 2040, rising to 526 million people from its January 2010 level of 501 million. After that, it will decline and hit 517 million in 2060 according to projections from Eurostat, the EU’s statistical arm.

“Between 2010 and 2060, the population is projected to rise in 14 member states and fall in 13,” Eurostat said in press release. “In 2060, the EU countries with the largest populations would be the UK at 79 million, France at 74 million, Germany at 66 million, Italy at 65 million and Spain at 52 million.”

The population is also expected to continue to be proportionately older, with the share of population 65 years of age and higher rising from 17 percent in 2010 to 30 percent in 2060, and those 80 and older rising from 5 to 12 percent in the same time. In the Czech Republic, some 15.2 percent of the population was 65 or older in 2010, and this proportion is expected to rise to 30.7 percent by 2060; the number of people 80 and over will rise from 3.6 percent to 12.2 percent in that timeframe.

Population in the EU-27

The strongest population growth is expected in Ireland (up 46 percent), Luxembourg (up 45 percent), Cyprus (up 41 percent) and the UK (up 27 percent). The sharpest declines are foreseen in Bulgaria (down 27 percent), Latvia (down 26 percent), Lithuania (down 20 percent), Romania and Germany (both down 19 percent).

The Czech Republic will not see such dramatic shifts, and is expected to have 10,467,652 people in 2060, down slightly from 10,506,813 in 2010. Eurostat projects that Czech population will peak in 2025 at 10,863,534. The median age in the Czech Republic is expected to rise from 39.4 in 2010 to 48.1 in 2060.

The aging of the population will mean that the ratio of retired people will rise compared to working people. “The old age dependency ratio in the EU-27, the population aged 65 years and older divided by the population aged 15 to 64, is projected to increase from 26 percent in 2010 to 53 percent in 2060,” Eurostat said. “In other words, there would be only two persons aged 15 to 64 for every person aged 65 or more in 2060, compared with four persons to one in 2010.”

Percent of people over 65 years of age

The old age dependency ratio is projected to be 60 percent or higher in Bulgaria, Germany, Latvia, Poland, Romania and Slovakia. For the Czech Republic, it was 21.6 percent in 2010, and should rise to 55 percent in 2060.

The dependency ratio has shifted a lot already. “In 1960, the old age dependency ratio ranged from 10 percent to 19 percent in the member states for which data are available, meaning that there were between five and 10 persons aged 15 to 64 for every person aged 65 or more,” Eurostat said, adding that this will pose a challenge for pensions and social programs across the EU.

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